Subtyping of major SARS-CoV-2 variants reveals different transmission dynamics based on 10 million genomes.

SARS-CoV-2 continues to evolve, causing waves of the pandemic. Up to May 2022, 10 million genome sequences have accumulated, which are classified into five major variants of concern. With the growing number of sequenced genomes, analysis of the big dataset has become increasingly challenging. Here we developed systematic approaches based on sets of correlated single nucleotide variations (SNVs) for comprehensive subtyping and pattern recognition of transmission dynamics. The approach outperformed single-SNV and spike-centric scans. Moreover, the derived subtypes elucidate the relationship of signature SNVs and transmission dynamics. We found that different subtypes of the same variant, including Delta and Omicron exhibited distinct temporal trajectories. For example, some Delta and Omicron subtypes did not spread rapidly, while others did. We identified sets of characteristic SNVs that appeared to enhance transmission or decrease efficacy of antibodies for some subtypes. We also identified a set of SNVs that appeared to suppress transmission or increase viral sensitivity to antibodies. For the Omicron variant, the dominant type in the world, we identified the subtypes with enhanced and suppressed transmission in an analysis of eight million genomes as of March 2022 and further confirmed the findings in a later analysis of ten million genomes as of May 2022. While the "enhancer" SNVs exhibited an enriched presence on the spike protein, the "suppressor" SNVs are mainly elsewhere. Disruption of the SNV correlation largely destroyed the enhancer-suppressor phenomena. These results suggest the importance of fine subtyping of variants, and point to potential complex interactions among SNVs.

Subtyping of major SARS-CoV-2 variants reveals different transmission dynamics (preprint)

SARS-CoV-2 continues to evolve, causing waves of the pandemic. Up to March 2022, eight million genome sequences have accumulated, which are classified into five major variants of concern. With the growing number of sequenced genomes, analysis of the big dataset has become increasingly challenging. Here we developed systematic approaches for comprehensive subtyping and pattern recognition for transmission dynamics. By analyzing the first two million viral genomes as of July 2021, we found that different subtypes of the same variant exhibited distinct temporal trajectories. For example, some Delta subtypes did not spread rapidly, while others did. We identified sets of characteristic single nucleotide variations (SNVs) that appeared to enhance transmission or decrease efficacy of antibodies for some subtypes of the Delta and Alpha variants. We also identified a set of SNVs that appeared to suppress transmission or increase viral sensitivity to antibodies. These findings are later confirmed in an analysis of six million genomes as of December 2021. For the Omicron variant, the dominant type in the world, we identified the subtypes with enhanced and suppressed transmission in an analysis of seven million genomes as of January 2022 and further confirmed the findings in a later analysis of eight million genomes as of March 2022. While the "enhancer" SNVs exhibited an enriched presence on the spike protein, the suppressor SNVs are mainly elsewhere. Disruption of the SNV correlation largely destroyed the enhancer-suppressor phenomena. These results suggest the importance of fine subtyping of variants, and point to potential complex interactions among SNVs.

Analysis of genomic distributions of SARS-CoV-2 reveals a dominant strain type with strong allelic associations.

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the causal agent of COVID 19, continues to evolve since its first emergence in December 2019. Using the complete sequences of 1,932 SARS-CoV-2 genomes, various clustering analyses consistently identified six types of the strains. Independent of the dendrogram construction, 13 signature variations in the form of single nucleotide variations (SNVs) in protein coding regions and one SNV in the 5' untranslated region (UTR) were identified and provided a direct interpretation for the six types (types I to VI). The six types of the strains and their underlying signature SNVs were validated in two subsequent analyses of 6,228 and 38,248 SARS-CoV-2 genomes which became available later. To date, type VI, characterized by the four signature SNVs C241T (5'UTR), C3037T (nsp3 F924F), C14408T (nsp12 P4715L), and A23403G (Spike D614G), with strong allelic associations, has become the dominant type. Since C241T is in the 5' UTR with uncertain significance and the characteristics can be captured by the other three strongly associated SNVs, we focus on the other three. The increasing frequency of the type VI haplotype 3037T-14408T-23403G in the majority of the submitted samples in various countries suggests a possible fitness gain conferred by the type VI signature SNVs. The fact that strains missing one or two of these signature SNVs fail to persist implies possible interactions among these SNVs. Later SNVs such as G28881A, G28882A, and G28883C have emerged with strong allelic associations, forming new subtypes. This study suggests that SNVs may become an important consideration in SARS-CoV-2 classification and surveillance.

Genomic, geographic and temporal distributions of SARS-CoV-2 mutations (preprint)

The COVID-19 pandemic is the most significant public health issue in recent history. Its causal agent, SARS-CoV-2, has evolved rapidly since its first emergence in December 2019. Mutations in the viral genome have critical impacts on the adaptation of viral strains to the local environment, and may alter the characteristics of viral transmission, disease manifestation, and the efficacy of treatment and vaccination. Using the complete sequences of 1,932 SARS-CoV-2 genomes, we examined the genomic, geographic and temporal distributions of aged, new, and frequent mutations of SARS-CoV-2, and identified six phylogenetic clusters of the strains, which also exhibit a geographic preference in different continents. Mutations in the form of single nucleotide variations (SNVs) provide a direct interpretation for the six phylogenetic clusters. Linkage disequilibrium, haplotype structure, evolutionary process, global distribution of mutations unveiled a sketch of the mutational history. Additionally, we found a positive correlation between the average mutation count and case fatality, and this correlation had strengthened with time, suggesting an important role of SNVs on disease outcomes. This study suggests that SNVs may become an important consideration in virus detection, clinical treatment, drug design, and vaccine development to avoid target shifting, and that continued isolation and sequencing is a crucial component in the fight against this pandemic. Significance StatementMutation is the driving force of evolution for viruses like SARS-CoV-2, the causal agent of COVID-19. In this study, we discovered that the genome of SARS-CoV-2 is changing rapidly from the originally isolated form. These mutations have been spreading around the world and caused more than 2.5 million of infected cases and 170 thousands of deaths. We found that fourteen frequent mutations identified in this study can characterize the six main clusters of SARS-CoV-2 strains. In addition, we found the mutation burden is positively correlated with the fatality of COVID-19 patients. Understanding mutations in the SARS-CoV-2 genome will provide useful insight for the design of treatment and vaccination.